Taiwan Strait ALERT!｜2026-01-27｜Procurement timelines and joint fires integration offset leadership turbulence and normalized pressure
Key Takeaways
- Beijing opened investigations into Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, and Taipei emphasized continuous monitoring and intelligence sharing, so early warning indicators now span military and non-military lines.
- Taiwan’s military launched a Joint Firepower Coordination Centre with US support, so cross-service intelligence to strike linkages may shorten.
- Taiwan’s legislature delayed review of a special defense budget, and the Ministry of National Defense warned a missed pricing letter window could restart an eight-month process, so delivery timelines may slip.
- The Hai Kun submarine advanced its sixth sea acceptance test, and CSBC said delivery timing remains unclear while penalties continue, so the undersea capability timeline remains uncertain.
- Beijing issued a Japan travel warning alongside ongoing dispute linked to Taiwan security remarks, so political friction may shape crisis communication channels.
- Maritime risk firm Ambrey warned Beijing could use boarding and administrative interference without a declared blockade, so war-risk insurance and rerouting decisions may be triggered in a short shock window.
Risk Context
- Beijing sustains near-continuous air and maritime activity around Taiwan while pushing internal anti-corruption moves in the PLA.
- Taipei converts uncertainty into trackable signals, so it is institutionalizing early warning and partner intelligence exchange.
- Legislative timing and procurement process timing directly shape delivery schedules, so delays widen capability gaps.
- If Beijing favors gray-zone administrative interference, shipping and insurance markets will react first, so economic and logistics risk may surface before kinetic moves.
Today’s Items
1) Breaking｜Taipei flags abnormal PLA leadership shifts and strengthens early warning
- One-line summary：Defense Minister Wellington Koo said Taiwan will keep monitoring abnormal leadership shifts and maintain readiness after Beijing moved against Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli.
- Three-sentence brief：Beijing announced investigations into Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and senior officer Liu Zhenli. Wellington Koo told Taiwan’s legislature that Taiwan will use joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance plus intelligence sharing to grasp Beijing’s intent and focus on early warning indicators. Taipei treats top-level turbulence as a source of uncertainty, so continuous monitoring and partner exchanges are framed as tools to reduce miscalculation and sudden escalation.
- Taiwan Strait impact：The affected area is crisis warning time and decision time. Therefore, if Taipei institutionalizes military and non-military early warning signals, it can adjust readiness and diplomacy earlier when gray-zone behavior shifts.
- Watch item：Within seven days, whether Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense publicly releases a new list of early warning indicators or a related training schedule.
Original title：Taiwan monitoring 'abnormal' China military leadership changes after top general put under investigation
Source / Time：Reuters｜Mon, 26 Jan 2026 01:59:23 GMT PRC official
2) Ongoing｜Taiwan launches a Joint Firepower Coordination Centre with the US
- One-line summary：Taiwan’s military set up a Joint Firepower Coordination Centre with the US to integrate long-range precision strike planning and intelligence sharing.
- Three-sentence brief：Taiwan established a Joint Firepower Coordination Centre in cooperation with the US. The centre was described as Taiwan’s highest-level facility of its kind to coordinate long-range precision strike planning and intelligence sharing across services, while linking US-made systems with domestically developed missiles. Taipei is using cross-service fires integration to strengthen asymmetric defense, so sustained pressure from Beijing will likely increase reliance on fused intelligence and long-range strike planning.
- Taiwan Strait impact：The affected area is asymmetric strike capacity and joint command. Therefore, if the centre shortens the intelligence to strike chain, Taiwan’s deterrence and interdiction against pre-landing and pre-blockade nodes may increase.
- Watch item：Within seven days, whether Taipei publicly releases staffing appointments for the centre or a related exercise schedule.
Original title：Taiwan launches firepower hub with US as Beijing steps up military pressure
Source / Time：SCMP｜Mon, 26 Jan 2026 12:37:10 GMT
3) Long-term impact｜Special defense budget delay may force a process restart and slow upgrades
- One-line summary：Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense warned that late action on a US pricing letter could restart an eight-month process and delay urgent capability upgrades.
- Three-sentence brief：Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense briefed the legislature that delays in the special defense budget review can slow capability upgrades. The Strategic Planning director said more than 30 days have passed since Washington notified the US Congress, Taiwan expects the pricing letter soon, and Taiwan has 45 days to process and sign it with one possible extension. If Taiwan misses the window and no extension is granted, the process could restart and take more than eight months, so delivery timelines would slip amid global competition for the same equipment.
- Taiwan Strait impact：The affected area is delivery cadence for key equipment and allied confidence. Therefore, repeated budget and process delays can widen the capability gap and weaken signals of self-defense commitment.
- Watch item：Within seven days, whether Taiwan receives and signs the pricing letter or the legislature publishes an accelerated review schedule.
Original title：Defense budget delay could stall upgrades over eight months: MND
Source / Time：Taipei Times｜Sun, 25 Jan 2026 16:00:00 GMT
4) Long-term impact｜Hai Kun submarine sixth sea acceptance test advances but delivery remains unclear
- One-line summary：Taiwan’s first indigenous submarine Hai Kun began its sixth sea acceptance test, but the shipbuilder did not give trial details or a delivery date and said penalties have accrued.
- Three-sentence brief：The Hai Kun submarine sailed out from Kaohsiung Harbor for its sixth sea acceptance test. CSBC described the sea acceptance test as a formal series of trials to confirm contractual performance specifications, and it said it cannot provide details on the latest test or specify delivery timing. Delivery uncertainty pushes back the undersea capability timeline, so Taiwan may need to bridge the transition period with other platforms and training.
- Taiwan Strait impact：The affected area is undersea denial and sea lane defense. Therefore, delayed delivery reduces buffer capacity against blockade pressure and anti-submarine challenges.
- Watch item：Within seven days, whether CSBC or Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense releases an updated sea trial progress note or a delivery timeline.
Original title：Indigenous submarine begins sixth sea trial
Source / Time：Taipei Times｜Sun, 25 Jan 2026 16:00:00 GMT
5) Ongoing｜Beijing issues Japan travel warning amid dispute linked to Taiwan security remarks
- One-line summary：China’s foreign ministry and its embassy in Tokyo urged citizens to avoid travel to Japan and the report tied the warning to ongoing diplomatic tension linked to Taiwan security comments.
- Three-sentence brief：China’s foreign ministry and the Chinese embassy in Tokyo issued a travel warning and urged citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. The statement pointed to crime and earthquakes, and the reporting framed it against continued diplomatic stalemate after Sanae Takaichi said a Taiwan attack could prompt Japanese military involvement. Beijing’s public safety framing layered onto Taiwan-related disputes can deepen mutual suspicion, so Japan’s Taiwan Strait debate may face stronger domestic and diplomatic constraints.
- Taiwan Strait impact：The affected area is Japan’s political expectations about Taiwan Strait involvement and the crisis communication environment. Therefore, sustained friction may make public messaging more cautious while also pushing more structured consultations with allies.
- Watch item：Within seven days, whether Beijing releases additional Japan warnings or a public demarche notice.
Original title：Beijing issues new Japan travel warning as row over Takaichi’s Taiwan comments rumbles on
Source / Time：SCMP｜Mon, 26 Jan 2026 11:31:50 GMT PRC official
6) Ongoing｜Taiwan indicts an alleged PRC espionage network with a united front recruitment pathway
- One-line summary：Taiwan prosecutors indicted a businessman and a retired official and said they organized an espionage network for the Chinese Communist Party.
- Three-sentence brief：Taiwan’s High Prosecutors Office indicted Cheng Ming-chia and retired Executive Yuan official Hu Peng-nien under national security charges. Prosecutors said Cheng held roles in CCP-affiliated organizations in Guangzhou and arranged Hu’s contact with a PRC united front official, followed by recruitment tasks targeting political figures and active and retired military personnel. The described recruitment chain links cross-border business interests with united front structures, so Taiwan’s counter-penetration work may increasingly focus on ongoing mapping of cross-border incentives and access.
- Taiwan Strait impact：The affected area is intelligence security and mobilization resilience. Therefore, networks touching political figures and military personnel can weaken secrecy and cohesion during a crisis.
- Watch item：Within seven days, whether a court issues a new detention or hearing schedule decision and publicly releases it.
Original title：Two Taiwanese indicted over alleged espionage for China
Source / Time：CNA｜Mon, 26 Jan 2026 11:07:00 GMT
7) Long-term impact｜Analysis says PLA activity is normalized and driven more by internal rhythms
- One-line summary：An analysis using 2025 data said PLA air and maritime presence around Taiwan was near-continuous and looked more like systematic preparation than external signaling.
- Three-sentence brief：An author used a 2025 dataset compiled for ASPI to assess PLA coercion around Taiwan. The article said only Nov 12 and Nov 13 saw no detected PLA air or maritime assets, and it noted typhoons plus China’s holidays and sensitive internal political moments corresponded with lower observable activity. The article argued daily tempo is weakly linked to single events in Taipei or Washington, so external observers can misread long-run training accumulation if they only search for triggers.
- Taiwan Strait impact：The affected area is warning thresholds and escalation recognition. Therefore, when normalization raises the baseline, Taipei and partners need finer-grained indicators to detect a shift from routine pressure to higher-end war preparation.
- Watch item：Within seven days, whether trackable notices show high-intensity PLA activity sustained during severe weather windows.
Original title：That Isn’t Signaling. China’s Military Is Seriously Rehearsing Around Taiwan
Source / Time：RealClearDefense｜Mon, 26 Jan 2026 06:00:00 GMT
8) Long-term impact｜Ambrey warns Beijing can use maritime enforcement and administrative interference to shock shipping
- One-line summary：Ambrey said Beijing can trigger a short shock window for Taiwan Strait shipping through boardings and administrative interference without declaring a blockade, with war-risk insurance reacting within hours.
- Three-sentence brief：Maritime risk firm Ambrey discussed a leadership-disruption coercion scenario and its impact on commercial shipping in the Taiwan Strait. Ambrey said Beijing could use law enforcement vessels under a legal framing to stop, board, divert, or delay ships, and it warned war-risk premiums and coverage approvals could spike within hours. Gray-zone administrative interference shifts the cost amplifier from strikes to rules and insurance markets, so routing and freight decisions may cascade quickly.
- Taiwan Strait impact：The affected area is sea lanes and commercial shipping risk. Therefore, even without kinetic action, insurance and administrative friction can reshape passability and affect logistics tempo for Taiwan support.
- Watch item：Within seven days, whether China’s coast guard or maritime authorities add new boarding schedules near Taiwan or publish new enforcement notices.
Original title：Maduro capture highlights Taiwan Strait risks
Source / Time：Freight News｜Mon, 26 Jan 2026 13:45:00 GMT
Trends and Scenarios
- Taipei is prioritizing cross-service fires and intelligence fusion. If the coordination centre and procurement deliveries move in parallel, long-range precision strike becomes a system capability instead of isolated platforms.
- Beijing is more likely to run pressure on internal rhythms. If the baseline stays elevated, crisis recognition will depend on fine indicators rather than single large exercises.
- If Beijing favors gray-zone administrative interference over a declared blockade, shipping and insurance will price risk first. If war-risk premiums rise alongside more boardings, Taiwan resupply and regional supply chains face higher friction costs.