Taiwan Strait ALERT!｜2026-02-03｜Defense budget gridlock and faster Taiwan US coordination
Key Takeaways
- President Lai urged the legislature to move a special defense budget, so budget delays now directly compress Taiwan’s procurement and readiness window.
- Washington and Taipei are moving a Joint Firepower Cooperation Center, so training and equipment integration shifts further toward asymmetric warfare.
- President Lai framed trade as partnering with democracies and discussed AI and critical minerals with the United States, so economic security is more tightly bound to deterrence politics.
- PLA aircraft crossed the median line and operated with PLA naval vessels, so Taiwan’s forces must sustain high-tempo monitoring and resource burn.
- KMT leaders traveled to Beijing and stressed family ties across the Strait, so domestic line-splitting can spill into mixed external signals.
Risk Thread
Beijing keeps raising military pressure on Taiwan, so Taipei treats defense spending and asymmetric capabilities as a baseline for deterrence.
Opposition parties keep stalling the special budget in the legislature, so procurement timing and deployment sequencing face a domestic veto point.
Washington advances supply chain and defense coordination through dialogues and projects, so Taiwan’s economic security and readiness planning pull in the same direction.
KMT delegation activity in Beijing continues alongside domestic fights in Taipei, so signaling coherence becomes harder and miscalculation risk rises.
Today’s Items
1) Sustained Watch｜Special defense budget stalls again as cross-Strait politics sharpen
- One-line summary：President Lai pressed opposition lawmakers to move a special defense budget and warned the delay is dangerous, so legislative gridlock becomes a direct constraint on defense capacity building.
- Three-sentence brief：President Lai in Taipei urged opposition lawmakers to advance a special defense budget. President Lai is seeking an additional 40 billion dollars in defense spending over several years, but opposition lawmakers blocked the move again and the special budget failed to advance for a tenth time. President Lai also criticized the KMT for reportedly planning to meet the Chinese Communist Party, so external pressure and internal paralysis reinforce each other.
- Taiwan Strait impact：Impact area is defense budgeting and the funding schedule that enables approved weapons systems. Legislative delay weakens end-to-end coverage and timing for systems recently approved by the United States, so the readiness window is compressed by domestic procedure.
- Watch point：Whether the relevant legislative committee schedules a vote or a reading step for the special defense budget within seven days.
原标题：Taiwan’s Lai Calls Delays to Special Defense Budget ‘Dangerous’
来源 / 时间：Bloomberg｜Tue, 03 Feb 2026 03:59:25 GMT
2) Medium to Long Term Impact｜Joint Firepower Cooperation Center points to more institutionalized asymmetric training
- One-line summary：Washington and Taipei are advancing a Joint Firepower Cooperation Center to integrate equipment and elite troops, so asymmetric training and coordination become more institutionalized.
- Three-sentence brief：The United States and Taiwan are expected to advance a Joint Firepower Cooperation Center to prepare for asymmetric warfare. The American Institute in Taiwan wrote on Jan. 22 that Northrop Grumman has installed a medium-caliber ammunition test range in Taiwan and Anduril has launched an effort to build local supply links for its Ghost-X autonomous air vehicle. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command declined to comment and pointed to reports saying the United States would not deploy troops to the center, so cooperation likely centers on hardware, testing, and training workflows.
- Taiwan Strait impact：Impact area is joint readiness and gaps in early warning and targeting support. The center normalizes weapons-personnel coordination before a crisis, so Taipei can build repeatable procedures for air denial and maritime denial.
- Watch point：Whether the American Institute in Taiwan or Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense publishes an activation timeline or initial training schedule within seven days.
原标题：Taiwan-US ‘firepower’ center to hone asymmetric warfare tactics
来源 / 时间：Defense News｜Mon, 02 Feb 2026 11:51:43 GMT
3) Medium to Long Term Impact｜President Lai anchors trade and economic security in democratic partnerships
- One-line summary：President Lai said Taiwan should deepen trade with democracies rather than China, so the Taiwan US agenda folds AI and critical minerals into an economic security frame.
- Three-sentence brief：President Lai in Taipei said Taiwan should pursue trade and economic cooperation with democracies rather than China. Taiwanese and U.S. officials discussed AI, technology, and drones and signed statements on economic security cooperation and the Pax Silica Declaration. President Lai framed the choice as working with the United States, Japan, Europe and other partners, so domestic line debates can more directly shape external economic security priorities.
- Taiwan Strait impact：Impact area is supply chain security and partner coordination. Taipei is bundling trade cooperation with security cooperation, so Beijing’s pressure can translate into a combined package of economic leverage and gray-zone operations.
- Watch point：Whether Taiwan and the United States publish a follow-on working group or a concrete project schedule under the Pax Silica Declaration within seven days.
原标题：Taiwan must look to democracies, not China, for trade cooperation, president says
来源 / 时间：Reuters｜Tue, 03 Feb 2026 03:44:51 GMT
4) Breaking｜Taiwan reports median line crossing and nearby PLA naval activity
- One-line summary：Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported two PLA aircraft crossing the median line alongside six PLA naval vessels, so Taiwan activated air, sea, and coastal missile monitoring.
- Three-sentence brief：Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said it tracked two PLA aircraft and six naval vessels around Taiwan from 6 a.m. Monday to 6 a.m. Tuesday. The ministry said the two aircraft crossed the median line and entered northern and southwestern air defense identification zones. The ministry said Taiwan deployed aircraft, naval ships, and coastal-based missile systems, so Beijing’s high-frequency gray-zone pattern continues to test Taiwan’s response and drain resources.
- Taiwan Strait impact：Impact area is air defense and maritime alert resource consumption. The PLA’s routine sorties and sailings extend alert time, so Taiwan must rotate forces and spend more on maintenance and training readiness.
- Watch point：Whether Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reports a sustained increase in median line crossings or nearby vessel counts within seven days.
原标题：Taiwan tracks 6 Chinese naval ships, 2 military aircraft
来源 / 时间：Taiwan News｜Tue, 03 Feb 2026 11:05:00 GMT
5) Sustained Watch｜KMT delegation in Beijing stresses family ties across the Strait
- One-line summary：The KMT framed mainland China as family and sent a delegation to Beijing for a forum, so cross-Strait outreach becomes part of domestic line competition and affects signal coherence.
- Three-sentence brief：The KMT said it views mainland China as family and sent vice-chair Hsiao Hsu-tsen to Beijing for a think tank forum with the Chinese Communist Party. Hsiao said the delegation has 40 members, will attend a full-day forum on Tuesday, and will visit Tsinghua University on Wednesday before returning the same day. Hsiao is expected to meet Taiwan Affairs Office director Song Tao and said the forum focuses on tourism, precision machinery, healthcare, energy, and disaster prevention, so domestic divisions can be read externally as mixed signals.
- Taiwan Strait impact：Impact area is signaling coherence and crisis communication posture. The KMT projects cooperation messaging in Beijing while the governing team stresses defense and democratic partner alignment, so outside observers have less clarity on Taipei’s internal consensus and miscalculation space grows.
- Watch point：Whether Hsiao Hsu-tsen meets Song Tao and publicly releases a post-meeting summary within seven days.
原标题：Taiwan’s KMT stresses ‘family’ ties with mainland China as vice-chair begins Beijing visit
来源 / 时间：South China Morning Post｜Mon, 02 Feb 2026 11:30:11 GMT
Trends and Scenarios
- If the legislature keeps stalling the special defense budget, Taipei is more likely to push phased funding or a narrower bill. If opposition parties insist on covering only part of systems, capability coverage will be split by domestic bargaining.
- If Washington and Taipei advance the Joint Firepower Cooperation Center alongside economic security dialogues, U.S. involvement is more likely to come through equipment and processes rather than troop deployment. If Taipei ties supply chain security to readiness messaging, economic and security narratives will become even more bundled.
- If the PLA sustains median line crossings and routine patrol tempo, Taiwan’s resource burn will keep rising and urgency around training and budgeting will increase. If domestic line conflict sharpens, defense policy will be pulled further into party competition.