Taiwan Strait Crisis ALERT! | 2025-12-29 | Justice Mission Drills Simulate Port Blockade; Russia Pledges Military Support
Key Points
- PLA launches "Justice Mission 2025" drills, encircling Taiwan and simulating blockades of Keelung and Kaohsiung ports.
- Russian FM Lavrov explicitly cites treaty obligations to support China's territorial integrity if a Taiwan conflict flares up.
- Taiwan military plans mass production of 1,600 attack USVs and construction of a "T-Dome" defense network.
- The drills are viewed as a direct response to the $11.1bn US arms sale and hardline remarks by Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi.
Risk Context
The situation in the Taiwan Strait is undergoing a significant escalation. China's "Justice Mission 2025" drills have moved beyond mere deterrence to specific combat rehearsals for "port blockades" and "denying external forces." The backdrop includes the crystallization of US-Japan-Taiwan security cooperation (largest-ever US arms sale, Japanese PM viewing Taiwan as an existential threat) and the overt strategic alignment of China and Russia. The PLA's explicit inclusion of "anti-access/area denial" goals indicates Beijing is preparing for a complex conflict involving US and Japanese intervention.
News Items
1) China Launches "Justice Mission 2025" Drills, Simulating Blockade of Major Ports
- One-sentence Summary: The PLA Eastern Theater Command initiates joint drills involving army, navy, air, and rocket forces to practice blockading key ports in response to US-Japan-Taiwan collusion.
- Simplified Summary: The PLA Eastern Theater Command announced and immediately launched drills codenamed "Justice Mission 2025" on Monday. The exercises involve the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force, with 5 to 7 drill zones encircling Taiwan. Core objectives include "sea-air combat readiness patrols," "joint seizure of comprehensive superiority," and "blockade of key ports," specifically naming Keelung in the north and Kaohsiung in the south. This is seen as a strong response to the recent US approval of an $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan and Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi's statement that Japan's Self-Defense Forces could intervene if a Taiwan contingency occurs. Taiwan's Ministry of Transportation noted that the drills would affect over 100,000 international flight passengers, with live-fire exercises in some maritime and airspace zones.
- Taiwan Impact: The drills transform "blockade" from a concept into concrete action, directly testing the resilience of Taiwan's energy and supply imports and compressing Taiwan's defensive depth to the edge of its territorial waters.
- Watch Point: Whether Tuesday's live-fire zones physically cut off commercial shipping lanes or enter Taiwan's 24nm contiguous zone.
Original Title: China Launches Live-Fire Drills Around Taiwan, Simulating Ports Blockade
Source / Date: Reuters, CNA, PRC official｜2025-12-29
2) Russian FM Lavrov: Russia Will Support China if Taiwan Situation Escalates
- One-sentence Summary: Russian Foreign Minister cites the 2001 treaty to explicitly state that Russia will support China's defense of territorial integrity if a conflict occurs in the Taiwan Strait.
- Simplified Summary: In an interview with TASS, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that under the "Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation" signed in 2001, Russia will support China in defending national unity and territorial integrity if the situation in the Taiwan Strait deteriorates. Lavrov emphasized that Taiwan is China's internal affair and criticized the West for deliberately escalating tensions. These remarks come as Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi made strong comments on Taiwan Strait security; Lavrov simultaneously warned the Japanese government that its accelerated militarization would destabilize the region. This is one of the most explicit statements by senior Russian leadership regarding a Taiwan conflict in recent times.
- Taiwan Impact: Strategic binding between China and Russia on the Taiwan issue will significantly increase the complexity of US-Japan intervention, potentially leading to a multi-front conflict scenario.
- Watch Point: Whether Russian naval or air forces coordinate deployments with the PLA in the Western Pacific during the drills.
Original Title: Russia vows to support China if Taiwan contingency flares up: top diplomat
Source / Date: TASS, Kyodo｜2025-12-28
3) Taiwan Plans Mass Production of 1,600 Attack USVs and "Taiwan Iron Dome"
- One-sentence Summary: Taiwan's military plans to use a special budget to mass-produce autonomous attack USVs and integrate defense systems to raise the cost of invasion.
- Simplified Summary: To strengthen asymmetric warfare capabilities, Taiwan's military plans to produce 1,600 Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) under a NT$1.25 trillion special budget framework. These vessels are required to have a top speed of at least 64 km/h and a range of 460 km, capable of swarm operations and autonomous target identification. Meanwhile, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te proposed the "Taiwan Shield" (or T-Dome) concept in an interview, aiming to integrate satellite, radar, and drone data to build an AI-assisted decision-making and sensing system to counter Chinese missile and aerial threats. Lai emphasized the need to deter China's intention to invade by 2027 by raising the cost of war.
- Taiwan Impact: If fully operational, large-scale unmanned combat systems would significantly enhance Taiwan's denial capabilities within the strait, posing a substantial asymmetric threat to PLA amphibious fleets.
- Watch Point: The progress of the special budget review in the Legislative Yuan and the technical integration between NCSIST and foreign contractors.
Original Title: Taiwan military eyes mass production of attack USVs
Source / Date: Taiwan News, SCMP｜2025-12-28
4) Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an Calls for Avoiding "Crashing Waves" During Shanghai Forum
- One-sentence Summary: Amid the PLA drills, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an expressed hope at the Shanghai Twin City Forum for peace and prosperity rather than turbulence in cross-strait relations.
- Simplified Summary: Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an visited Shanghai for the Twin City Forum, emphasizing in his speech that "contact is better than conflict" and hoping cross-strait relations would move toward peace and prosperity rather than "crashing waves and howling winds." However, shortly after the forum, China announced large-scale encirclement drills. Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council strongly criticized Beijing for talking about goodwill at the forum while conducting military intimidation, calling it a standard "two-pronged strategy." Upon returning to Taiwan, Chiang reiterated his opposition to any actions that escalate regional tensions and called for dialogue.
- Taiwan Impact: Beijing's military actions directly undermine the narrative of pro-dialogue factions within Taiwan, potentially exacerbating political polarization regarding cross-strait policy.
- Watch Point: The strength of the KMT central party's official statement on the drills and whether future cross-strait exchanges face obstruction.
Original Title: Military drill highlights China's 'two-pronged' Taiwan strategy: MAC
Source / Date: CNA, Focus Taiwan｜2025-12-29
Trends & Scenarios
- Operationalization of Blockade Tactics: The focus of PLA drills has shifted from general "encirclement" to precise "port blockades," specifically targeting Keelung and Kaohsiung—Taiwan's economic lifelines—indicating Beijing is accumulating combat experience for severing Taiwan's external supplies.
- Clarification of Opposing Camps: With Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi viewing Taiwan as an "existential threat" and Russian FM Lavrov promising "support for China," the internationalization of a Taiwan conflict is irreversible, forming a clear US-Japan-Taiwan vs. China-Russia structure.
- Blurring of Grey Zones and Military Lines: The large-scale coordinated action of Chinese Coast Guard vessels and Navy ships (89 aircraft, 28 warships/coast guard vessels in a single day) demonstrates Beijing's attempt to erase the median line and enforcement boundaries of Taiwan's contiguous zone.
Low Relevance
- CCG Releases Patrol Map｜CGTN｜PRC official｜China Coast Guard releases law enforcement patrol map coinciding with military drills.
- Taiwan Stock Market Reaction｜Reuters｜Taiwan stocks were largely unaffected by the drills, showing only minor fluctuations.