Taiwan Strait Crisis ALERT! | 2025-12-30 | PLA "Justice Mission 2025" Blockade Drills Approach Contiguous Zone
Today's Highlights
- PLA launches "Justice Mission 2025" drills, simulating a blockade of Taiwan with forces entering the 24nm contiguous zone.
- Taiwan detects 130 Chinese aircraft and 27 rockets in a single day; flights and fishing operations disrupted.
- US President Trump states he is "not worried" about the drills and believes Xi Jinping will not invade.
Risk Context
These drills are a direct response to the US approval of an $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan and remarks by Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi regarding military intervention. The exercises are characterized by "omnidirectional blockade" and "combat realism," with PLA aircraft, ships, and live-fire zones entering Taiwan's 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone. This intends to compress Taiwan's defensive depth and test the international community's bottom line for "gray zone" coercion. Trump's low-key response may be interpreted by Beijing as increased tolerance for such coercive actions, potentially encouraging more aggressive isolation or blockade measures in the future.
Today's Entries
1) PLA Launches Massive "Justice Mission 2025" Drills
- One-sentence Summary: The PLA conducts live-fire drills in five zones around Taiwan, simulating sea-air blockades and strikes, with a scale approaching Taiwan's main island.
- Simplified Summary: The People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command launched joint drills code-named "Justice Mission 2025" on Monday, dispatching destroyers, frigates, bombers, fighters, and drones. The exercises cover air and sea space north, south, and east of Taiwan, focusing on combat readiness patrols, key port blockades, and joint strikes on land/sea targets. Taiwan's Defense Ministry noted that the PLA fired 27 rockets, some falling within Taiwan's 24nm contiguous zone, and 90 PLA aircraft crossed the median line. The drills are viewed as a stern warning to the Lai Ching-te administration and external forces.
- Taiwan Impact: Pushes normalized military pressure inside the 24nm line, substantially reducing Taiwan's defensive reaction time and verifying blockade capabilities against key ports (Keelung, Kaohsiung).
- Observation Point: Whether PLA vessels continue to loiter at the edge of the contiguous zone in the coming week.
Original Title: China flexes blockade capabilities near Taiwan on second day of military drills
Source / Time: AP/Detroit News｜2025-12-30
2) Trump Responds to Drills: Not Worried, Xi Didn't Inform
- One-sentence Summary: Trump expresses "zero worry" about the drills, emphasizing his good relationship with Xi and belief that China won't attack.
- Simplified Summary: US President Trump showed nonchalance regarding the Chinese military drills. He told reporters that although Xi Jinping did not inform him in advance, he is "nothing worries me" about it, noting China has conducted drills in the area for years. Trump reiterated his great relationship with Xi and stated he doesn't believe Xi will launch an attack. These remarks come amidst US-China tensions over trade and Taiwan, contrasting with the State Department's approval of massive arms sales.
- Taiwan Impact: A low-key response at the US presidential level may weaken deterrence signals to Beijing, increasing the risk of Beijing miscalculating US resolve to intervene in the Taiwan Strait.
- Observation Point: Whether the State Department or Pentagon issues stronger statements to correct or clarify the stance.
Original Title: Trump ‘not worried’ as China’s live-fire Taiwan wargame enters second day
Source / Time: The Guardian｜2025-12-30
3) Beijing Warns US Cannot Stop Reunification
- One-sentence Summary: China's Foreign Ministry and military strongly condemn US arms sales, calling Taiwan a red line and warning external interference will face counterstrikes.
- Simplified Summary: In response to the US approval of $11.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian and Foreign Minister Wang Yi issued stern warnings. The statements asserted that arming Taiwan increases conflict risk and that the Taiwan issue is the first impassable red line in China-US relations. Wang specifically criticized "pro-independence" forces in Taiwan and Japan, stating attempts to stop reunification will fail. The PLA Eastern Theater Command spokesman called the drills a legitimate punishment for separatist forces.
- Taiwan Impact: Reinforces the mechanism that "military drills are the standard response to US arms sales," signaling that any future upgrade in US-Taiwan military cooperation will trigger reciprocal military retaliation.
- Observation Point: Whether China imposes more substantive, painful sanctions on US companies involved in the arms sales.
Original Title: China warns U.S. it cannot stop Taiwan reunification
Source / Time: UPI/PRC official｜2025-12-30
4) Drills Impact Taiwan's Daily Life and Transport
- One-sentence Summary: Military drills cause mass flight cancellations or diversions and force fishermen to halt operations, directly disrupting social and economic activities.
- Simplified Summary: Due to "dangerous zones" designated by the Chinese drills, Taiwan's Civil Aviation Administration reported significant flight disruptions. Over 100 to 150 international and domestic flights were affected, including diversions, delays, or cancellations, with flights to Kinmen and Matsu suspended at times. The Keelung Fishermen's Association warned fishermen via radio to avoid drill zones, halting operations and causing economic loss. Taiwan officials condemned the actions for destabilizing regional peace and affecting international shipping safety.
- Taiwan Impact: Demonstrates China's capability to use military drills to impose a "soft blockade" and disrupt Taiwan's energy and commercial logistics, increasing uncertainty for Taiwan's economy.
- Observation Point: Whether international shipping insurance rates fluctuate after the drills conclude.
Original Title: Chinese drills near Taiwan continue for 2nd day, air traffic disrupted
Source / Time: Kyodo News｜2025-12-30
5) Venezuela Voices Support for Beijing's Position
- One-sentence Summary: Venezuela issues a statement condemning US arms sales to Taiwan and supporting China's sovereignty claims.
- Simplified Summary: The Venezuelan government released a statement criticizing the US approval of arms sales to Taiwan as interference in China's internal affairs and a breach of international commitments. Venezuela reiterated its support for the "One China" principle, emphasizing Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, aligning diplomatically with Beijing and opposing US actions on the Taiwan issue.
- Taiwan Impact: Shows China's diplomatic mobilization capability in Latin America, attempting to build an "anti-US, pro-China" united front in international public opinion.
- Observation Point: Whether more "Global South" countries follow suit with similar statements.
Original Title: Venezuela condemns US arms sale to Taiwan, echoing Beijing’s position
Source / Time: SCMP｜2025-12-29
Trends & Scenarios
- Operational Blockades: The focus of drills has shifted from simple firepower displays to specific "key port blockades" and "severing supply lines," indicating the PLA is actively rehearsing scenarios for a 2027 or future invasion.
- Normalization of Contiguous Zone Entry: PLA aircraft, ships, and live-fire zones are approaching or entering the 24nm line, attempting to turn this area into "internal waters" and compressing Taiwan's warning and defensive space.
- Divergent US Responses: The gap between the Trump administration's reaction (not worried) and the US national security establishment's assessment (active arms sales, concern over 2027 timeline) may create mixed strategic signals.