TAIWAN STRAIT RISK ALERT｜2026-01-04｜PLA Normalizes Contiguous Zone Breaches & The Venezuela Effect
Highlights
- US strikes on Venezuela and the capture of Maduro spark discussions in Beijing on whether this creates a precedent or template for Taiwan scenarios.
- PLA "Justice Mission 2025" drills mark a major escalation by entering Taiwan's 24nm contiguous zone in force, establishing a new operational norm.
- South Korean President Lee Jae-myung visits China, attempting to strengthen economic ties and sidestep geopolitical risks amid rising Sino-Japanese tensions over Taiwan.
- New KMT Chair plans to visit Beijing in early 2026 to meet Xi Jinping, seeking to establish communication channels amidst the deadlock.
Risk Context
The recently concluded PLA "Justice Mission 2025" exercises demonstrate a significant tactical shift, moving from simply crossing the median line to effectively erasing the 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone buffer, drastically compressing Taiwan's defensive reaction time. Concurrently, while assessments suggest the US "decapitation" strike in Venezuela won't immediately alter Beijing's invasion timeline, it may encourage China to strengthen anti-access capabilities and adopt more aggressive stances in international legal narratives. Against this backdrop, South Korea's attempt to improved relations with China indicates pressure on the US alliance system in Northeast Asia to fracture, which could weaken regional collective deterrence regarding the Taiwan Strait.
News Items
1) PLA Drills Enforce Massive Breach of 24nm Contiguous Zone
- One-sentence Summary: PLA "Justice Mission 2025" exercises deployed 130 aircraft sorties and 14 warships, entering Taiwan's 24nm contiguous zone in force to simulate a blockade.
- Simplified Summary: According to The Diplomat and multiple media reports, the PLA's "Justice Mission 2025" exercises conducted in late 2025 demonstrated unprecedented tactical pressure. During the drills, 130 aircraft sorties entered Taiwan's ADIZ, with 90 crossing the median line, alongside 14 warships and 15 coast guard vessels. The most critical development was the physical entry of multiple PLA naval and coast guard vessels into the 24nm contiguous zone of Taiwan's main island. This marks Beijing's attempt to erase this long-standing buffer, similar to its previous erasure of the median line. The drills simulated a comprehensive blockade of Taiwan's ports and key waterways and tested capabilities to deny external intervention. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense noted this increases the risk of miscalculation and accidental conflict, with drill zones covering Taiwan's energy supply lines.
- Impact on Taiwan Strait: Compresses Taiwan's defensive depth and warning time, forcing Taiwanese forces to intercept at closer ranges, significantly raising the probability of accidental escalation.
- Observation Point: Whether PLA vessels continue to maintain a normalized presence within the 24nm line over the next 7 days.
Original Title: China’s Taiwan Drills Are Crossing a New Line / Justice Mission drills
Source / Time: The Diplomat, Macau Business｜2026-01-03
2) US Strike on Venezuela Triggers "Taiwan Template" Debate
- One-sentence Summary: The Trump administration's attack on Venezuela and arrest of Maduro prompts intense discussion among Chinese analysts and social media on whether this offers a pretext or template for Beijing.
- Simplified Summary: The US surprise attack on Venezuela and the arrest of President Maduro have triggered strong reactions in China. Reuters and Bloomberg report that while analysts generally believe this will not immediately prompt Xi Jinping to alter his invasion timeline—as Beijing is more focused on domestic economics and long-term capacity building—it may provide China with more leverage in international legal narratives. Chinese state media Xinhua condemned the US action as hegemony, which could offer a form of moral relativistic justification for future aggressive unilateral actions by Beijing. Some Chinese netizens and radical voices even suggested mimicking this model for a "decapitation" strike or surprise attack on Taiwan's leadership. However, military experts note a gap remains between PLA long-range special ops capabilities and those of the US.
- Impact on Taiwan Strait: Beijing may exploit this event to reinforce a "might makes right" narrative, using it as a pretext for more aggressive gray-zone law enforcement or military pressure around Taiwan.
- Observation Point: Whether the Chinese Foreign Ministry or Defense Ministry formally draws an analogy between Taiwan's status and the legitimacy of the Venezuelan regime in official statements.
Original Title: US strike on Venezuela to embolden China's territorial claims / China Social Media Hails Trump’s Maduro Move
Source / Time: Reuters, Bloomberg｜2026-01-04
3) South Korean President Visits China to Evade Taiwan Tensions
- One-sentence Summary: ROK President Lee Jae-myung arrives in Beijing, aiming to bolster economic cooperation and seek diplomatic balance regarding Taiwan-related geopolitical tensions.
- Simplified Summary: South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has begun a four-day visit to China, the first by a South Korean leader in six years. In a pre-departure interview, Lee reiterated respect for the "One China" principle and stated that maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is crucial. The visit comes as relations between China and Japan are tense over Taiwan—following Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi's suggestion of military intervention if China attacks Taiwan. Lee is attempting to avoid being drawn into the Sino-Japanese confrontation, focusing instead on restoring Sino-Korean economic ties and seeking China's help with North Korea. Analysts believe Beijing views South Korea as the weak link in US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation and will use this opportunity to court Seoul and weaken the US containment network in the region.
- Impact on Taiwan Strait: If South Korea adopts a more visibly neutral stance on the Taiwan issue, it would undermine the logistical coordination and joint response capabilities of the US-Japan-ROK military alliance during a Taiwan crisis.
- Observation Point: Whether the specific wording regarding "regional stability" in any joint statement avoids mentioning Taiwan or the South China Sea.
Original Title: South Korea's Lee lands in China, hoping to sidestep Taiwan tensions
Source / Time: AFP, AP｜2026-01-04
4) Militarization of Yonaguni Island as Defense Frontline
- One-sentence Summary: Japan's Yonaguni Island, just 70 miles from Taiwan, is accelerating militarization with radar and missile deployments to counter Chinese threats.
- Simplified Summary: The Telegraph reports that Japan's westernmost Yonaguni Island is transforming into a potential frontline for a Taiwan Strait conflict. Located just 70 miles from Taiwan, the island now hosts mobile radar stations and PAC-3 missile interceptor units. In the recent US-Japan "Resolute Dragon" exercises, US Marines established a forward arming and refueling point on the island for the first time and tested the deployment of the "Typhon" system capable of launching Tomahawk cruise missiles. These moves aim to integrate the operational capabilities of US forces and the Japan Self-Defense Forces for rapid response in the early stages of a conflict. Local residents express concern that the island could become a priority target for PLA strikes.
- Impact on Taiwan Strait: Strengthens the First Island Chain's ability to blockade waterways south of the Miyako Strait, increasing the difficulty and cost for the PLA Navy to break out into the West Pacific for anti-access operations.
- Observation Point: Specific progress on the deployment of electronic warfare equipment by the JSDF on Yonaguni.
Original Title: America’s race to save Taiwan
Source / Time: The Telegraph｜2026-01-04
5) New KMT Chair Plans Beijing Visit for Peace Message
- One-sentence Summary: New KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wun plans to visit Beijing in early 2026 to seek a meeting with Xi Jinping, intending to establish communication advantages before election season.
- Simplified Summary: The SCMP reports that Taiwan's main opposition party, the KMT, plans for Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun to visit Beijing around March 2026, hoping for a face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping. Cheng stated the visit carries major strategic significance, aiming to convey a message of peace to Beijing. She emphasized the trip must be completed before Taiwan's local election season begins in the second half of the year. Supporters view this as an opportunity to ease cross-strait tensions, but critics warn that visiting amidst sustained PLA pressure could be seen as showing weakness or excessive alignment with Beijing's position.
- Impact on Taiwan Strait: Beijing may use this visit for united front propaganda, treating Taiwan's political parties differentially to create internal divisions regarding mainland policy within Taiwan.
- Observation Point: Official confirmation of the itinerary and the reception protocol by the Taiwan Affairs Office.
Original Title: New KMT chair hopes to take peace message to Beijing
Source / Time: SCMP｜2026-01-04
6) DPP Lawmakers Propose "Two-State" Amendment Sparking Controversy
- One-sentence Summary: 25 DPP lawmakers propose amending laws to define cross-strait relations as "state-to-state," drawing strong opposition from the KMT and Beijing.
- Simplified Summary: About 25 DPP lawmakers have signed a proposal to amend the "Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area." The proposal includes changing "Mainland Area" to "People's Republic of China" and deleting the phrase "prior to unification," attempting to legally define cross-strait relations as a reciprocal state-to-state relationship. Initiator Lin I-chin stated this aims to reflect reality. KMT lawmakers criticized the move as a dangerous step towards "de jure independence" that could trigger a strong backlash from Beijing and mislead the international community. The Mainland Affairs Council stated that cross-strait regulations involve high political sensitivity and require broad social consensus.
- Impact on Taiwan Strait: If this bill enters substantive review, Beijing will view it as a major provocation and a concrete step towards de jure independence, highly likely triggering a new round of high-intensity military exercises or economic sanctions.
- Observation Point: Whether the Legislative Yuan's Procedure Committee schedules the bill for the agenda.
Original Title: DPP lawmakers seek to codify 'two-state' framing in cross-strait law
Source / Time: Focus Taiwan｜2026-01-03
7) Digital Threats and Harassment Against Taiwan Lawmaker
- One-sentence Summary: Chinese social media circulated satellite images of DPP legislator Puma Shen's home and workplace with threats of arrest, condemned by Taiwan officials as intimidation tactics.
- Simplified Summary: Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Mainland Affairs Council strongly condemned posts circulating on Chinese social media platform Weibo, which publicized detailed location information of DPP legislator Puma Shen and threatened to arrest him for "secession." The message was quickly amplified by media accounts affiliated with state authorities. Taiwan officials accused China of violating privacy and attempting to create a chilling effect in Taiwanese society through cognitive warfare. Shen responded that this is a standard psychological tactic intended to divide Taiwanese society and stated he would not be panicked.
- Impact on Taiwan Strait: Demonstrates Beijing is extending legal warfare and psychological warfare to specific threats against individuals, attempting to erode the morale and mobility of anti-China political figures in Taiwan.
- Observation Point: Whether the frequency of similar "wanted" lists or personal data leaks targeting specific Taiwanese politicians increases.
Original Title: Taiwan denounces threats against DPP lawmaker
Source / Time: Focus Taiwan｜2026-01-03
Trends & Scenarios
- Disappearing Strategic Buffer: PLA exercises entering the 24nm contiguous zone indicate the "salami slicing" tactic has entered a new phase. This area may become a normalized patrol zone in the future, subjecting Taiwan's Coast Guard and Navy to extremely high-pressure close-range standoffs.
- Escalation of Lawfare: From US actions in Venezuela to legislative proposals within Taiwan, both sides are seeking breakthroughs in legal or quasi-legal domains. Beijing may accelerate the promotion of legal narratives for exercising jurisdiction over Taiwan, potentially mimicking US long-arm jurisdiction.
- Risk of Alliance Fragmentation: South Korea's attempt to repair ties with Beijing suggests that without guarantees of forceful US intervention, regional countries may engage in hedging behavior, challenging the US Indo-Pacific security architecture designed to contain China.