TTaiwan Strait ALERT!｜2026-02-07｜Arms-sale signals collide with budget bottlenecks
Key takeaways
- Washington is weighing a new Taiwan arms-sale package, so Beijing may spill the dispute into an April summit schedule and trade talks.
- Taiwan opposition parties are pushing a smaller special defense budget and cutting air defense and unmanned systems, so Taiwan’s asymmetric buildup faces a timeline break.
- Defense Minister Wellington Koo warns Taiwan could become numb to daily pressure, so Taipei is speeding readiness drills, reserves, and procurement processes.
- Washington signed a FY2026 appropriations package with over 1,400 million US dollars for Taiwan security cooperation, so training, spares, and financing tools may move faster.
- Taipei is planning light frigates and integrating attack drones, so maritime air defense, anti-submarine coverage, and low-cost massed strike capacity are likely to grow.
- The PLA ran two major Taiwan-focused drills in 2025 and simulated a blockade that disrupted flights, so spillover risk to civil aviation and crisis tempo is rising.
Risk context
Beijing is using high-frequency air and maritime activity and narrative pressure to dull Taiwan’s threat sensitivity.
Taipei is advancing ships and drones to patch denial gaps, but budget gridlock in the Legislative Yuan may delay the most urgent air defense and unmanned-system fixes.
Washington is adding deterrence through arms sales and appropriations, but Beijing is likely to treat arms sales as a leverage point and convert politics into readiness delay.
Over the next few weeks, legislative review tempo and PLA exercise intensity will jointly shape the risk curve.
Today’s items
1. Breaking｜Report says Washington weighs new Taiwan arms sale ahead of an April summit
- One-sentence summary: Washington is said to be preparing a new Taiwan arms sale, so Beijing may use summit scheduling and diplomatic pressure as leverage.
- Three-sentence brief: Washington is weighing a new Taiwan arms-sale package. The Financial Times cited unidentified people saying it could include Patriot and NASAMS missiles and could reach 20 billion US dollars, but the final amount is undecided and could be lower. Beijing treats arms sales as a sovereignty red line, so new signals can compress diplomatic space and raise friction in crisis management.
- Taiwan impact: The impact vector is the pace of replenishing layered air defense munitions. Therefore a move toward notification and contracting would strengthen Taipei’s deterrence position, while also incentivizing Beijing to test mobilization thresholds with gray-zone actions.
- Watch item: In the next seven days, whether the US State Department or Defense Department issues an on-record response or whether congressional notification signals appear.
Original title: US Weighing New Taiwan Arms Sale Before Trump-Xi Summit, FT Says
Source / time: Bloomberg｜Sat, 07 Feb 2026 01:28:04 GMT
2. Watch｜Opposition pushes a smaller special budget that cuts air defense and unmanned systems
- One-sentence summary: Taiwan opposition parties are pushing a smaller special-budget version, so air defense integration and unmanned systems may be first in line for cuts.
- Three-sentence brief: The Kuomintang and the Taiwan People’s Party are pushing a committee review of the Taiwan People’s Party version and repeatedly blocking President Lai Ching-te’s version. ISW says the cap is around 13 billion US dollars and cites cuts that omit funding for an integrated air and missile defense network and 200,000 drones. If the smaller version passes, Taiwan’s modernization priorities will shift, so gaps in asymmetric capabilities and air defense will persist and reduce denial efficiency against the PLA.
- Taiwan impact: The impact vector is end-to-end delivery of Taiwan’s asymmetric concept. Therefore sustained cuts to unmanned systems and air defense integration would weaken sustained interception and persistent ISR and raise the burn rate in blockade and landing scenarios.
- Watch item: In the next seven days, whether the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee posts a review schedule and voting timeline for the special-budget version.
Original title: China & Taiwan Update, February 6, 2026
Source / time: ISW｜Fri, 06 Feb 2026 22:44:26 GMT
3. Watch｜Koo warns of numbness and pushes readiness and faster procurement
- One-sentence summary: Defense Minister Wellington Koo warns society could become numb to daily pressure, so the defense ministry is pushing higher readiness and faster procurement.
- Three-sentence brief: Defense Minister Wellington Koo is urging higher readiness against daily PLA pressure. Koo said Beijing has combined military pressure, cyberattacks, and psychological warfare more precisely, and he said detected PLA aircraft rose 23 percent in 2025 from the prior year. Beijing’s repetition is meant to erode threat awareness, so continued delays in special budgeting and procurement would weaken deterrence and raise miscalculation risk.
- Taiwan impact: The impact vector is the speed of civil and military response to risk signals and the quality of mobilization. Therefore numbness lowers warning and response efficiency, while budget gridlock can harden readiness gaps into structural weaknesses.
- Watch item: In the next seven days, whether cross-party talks or visible version changes emerge on the special defense budget.
Original title: Taiwan risks becoming numb to China drills, but threat is urgent, defence minister says
Source / time: Reuters｜Thu, 05 Feb 2026 16:04:23 GMT
4. Medium-term｜FY2026 appropriations add over 1,400 million US dollars for Taiwan security cooperation
- One-sentence summary: Washington signed an FY2026 appropriations package with over 1,400 million US dollars for Taiwan security cooperation, so training and financing tools may accelerate.
- Three-sentence brief: Donald Trump signed the FY2026 consolidated appropriations act and allocated over 1,400 million US dollars for Taiwan security cooperation. Focus Taiwan reported it includes 1 billion US dollars for the Taiwan Security Cooperation Initiative, at least 300 million US dollars under Foreign Military Financing, and 150 million US dollars to replace and reimburse defense articles and services provided to Taiwan. Washington is using funding to strengthen Taipei’s self-defense and deterrence, so execution can harden sustainment and training pipelines while also triggering Beijing’s diplomatic and military pushback.
- Taiwan impact: The impact vector is sustainment and the executability of partner support. Therefore if funding turns into training, maintenance, and munitions pipelines, Taiwan’s staying power rises, while the package becomes a pressure trigger for Beijing.
- Watch item: In the next seven days, whether US agencies publish implementation guidance or a funding allocation list for the Taiwan Security Cooperation Initiative.
Original title: Trump signs omnibus bill with over US$1.4 billion for Taiwan defense
Source / time: Focus Taiwan｜Fri, 06 Feb 2026 09:00:00 GMT
5. Medium-term｜Taipei plans a new light frigate program to strengthen maritime air defense and ASW
- One-sentence summary: Taipei plans light frigates for maritime air defense and anti-submarine missions, so escort and counter-blockade capacity could improve.
- Three-sentence brief: Taipei plans to build 10 light frigates between 2028 and 2040 for air defense and anti-submarine missions. USNI News cited procurement documents saying the 2,500-ton ships include five air-defense variants and five anti-submarine variants, and it said the two projects account for 7,800 million US dollars within six major shipbuilding programs. Taipei is replacing aging surface combatants to offset PLA advantages, so stronger maritime air defense and ASW coverage can raise persistent presence under blockade and gray-zone pressure.
- Taiwan impact: The impact vector is sustained maritime air-defense umbrellas and ASW screens. Therefore coordination with shore-based air defense and mobile anti-ship fires can deepen denial, while survivability still depends on dispersion and munitions cadence.
- Watch item: In the next seven days, whether Taiwan’s defense ministry or navy releases a tender schedule or updated key parameters for the light frigates.
Original title: Taiwan to Construct 10 Light Frigates for Air Defense, Anti-submarine Missions
Source / time: USNI News｜Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:43:26 GMT
6. Medium-term｜Taiwan and Kratos integrate an attack drone and set up flight testing
- One-sentence summary: Taipei and Kratos completed system integration for an attack drone and are moving toward flight tests, so low-cost massed strike capacity may form faster.
- Three-sentence brief: Taiwan’s Chung-shan Institute of Science and Technology and US defense firm Kratos completed system integration for the Mighty Hornet IV attack drone. Kratos said the Taiwan team completed payload and mission-system integration at its Oklahoma City facility and established a baseline for flight tests, and Kratos said the drone has a 1,000 kilometer operational range and Taiwan plans volume production if tests succeed. Taipei is pursuing affordable mass in unmanned systems, so scaling the program can raise ISR and strike density and strengthen deterrence.
- Taiwan impact: The impact vector is ISR and precision-strike density in blockade and landing scenarios. Therefore massed drones can spread PLA air-defense load and improve Taiwan’s ability to find targets early and sustain strikes.
- Watch item: In the next seven days, whether Kratos or the Chung-shan Institute publishes a flight-test schedule or additional detail on a Taiwan production arrangement.
Original title: Taiwan teams with US firm Kratos to build attack drones to counter China
Source / time: Reuters｜Fri, 06 Feb 2026 02:59:24 GMT
7. Medium-term｜CSIS records escalation in Taiwan-focused drills and blockade simulation with flight spillover
- One-sentence summary: The PLA ran two major Taiwan-focused drills in 2025 and simulated a blockade, so spillover into civil aviation and crisis tempo is rising.
- Three-sentence brief: The PLA conducted two large-scale Taiwan-focused drills in 2025 and carried out a second round named Justice Mission-2025 late in the year. CSIS recorded 135 aircraft sorties with 68 entering Taiwan’s ADIZ in April, and it recorded 207 aircraft sorties with 125 entering the ADIZ during the two-day December operation that simulated a blockade. The PLA is pushing drills closer to ports and routes and linking pressure to arms-sale moments, so military activity can translate into economic and social costs while testing Taipei’s resilience.
- Taiwan impact: The impact vector is continuity of shipping, aviation, and critical infrastructure under a blockade scenario. Therefore drills that press closer to ports and outlying waters can raise insurance and rerouting costs and compress Taipei’s crisis-response window.
- Watch item: In the next seven days, whether the PLA or maritime authorities publish a new large exercise notice with zoned deployments near Taiwan’s ports.
Original title: Tracking China's Increased Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific in 2025
Source / time: CSIS ChinaPower｜Thu, 05 Feb 2026 20:17:57 GMT
8. Medium-term｜Taipei plans more US LNG to hedge grid and blockade pressure
- One-sentence summary: Taipei pledged to buy more LNG from the United States, so energy diversification may be used to hedge pressure on the grid and sea lines.
- Three-sentence brief: Taiwan’s energy authorities said they will increase LNG purchases from the United States and reduce reliance on other suppliers. FDD said natural gas supplies nearly half of Taiwan’s electricity and US sources account for about 10 percent, and FDD said LNG reliance rose after Taiwan shut its last operating nuclear plant in May 2025. Beijing is portrayed as targeting energy alongside cyber activity and exercises, so diversification and grid resilience directly shape social stability and mobilization capacity under coercion and blockade pressure.
- Taiwan impact: The impact vector is societal resilience and sustained power supply in crisis. Therefore coordinated LNG contracting and grid protection can reduce Beijing’s leverage from energy disruption.
- Watch item: In the next seven days, whether Taipei publishes a new LNG purchase schedule or announces follow-on contracts with US projects.
Original title: Taiwan Strengthens Energy Resilience With Planned Purchases of American LNG
Source / time: FDD｜Fri, 06 Feb 2026 16:18:11 GMT
Trends and scenarios
- Washington may advance arms-sale discussions and appropriations execution in parallel. Beijing may respond with new gray-zone actions to test Taiwan’s mobilization thresholds.
- Legislative review of the special-budget version will determine whether air defense integration and unmanned systems are cut. Taipei may try to patch gaps through regular budgets and accelerated procurement if key lines cannot be restored.
- The PLA may keep using zoned exercises that press toward Taiwan’s ports and outlying waters. Taipei can reduce second-order disruption by hardening risk advisories and critical-infrastructure drills.