Taiwan Strait ALERT!｜2026-01-12｜Beijing sharpens the blockade and interdiction template
Today’s Key Points
- The PLA built operations near Japan into Taiwan drills, so the blockade and interdiction concept looks more executable.
- Taiwan’s NSB described PRC-run industrialized disinformation operations, so social resilience is a core risk variable.
- Jensen Huang stressed Taiwan’s central role in advanced AI chips, so Taiwan Strait stability stays tied to global compute.
- Taiwan’s MOEA reshaped offshore wind tender rules, so on-time grid connection becomes a long-term resilience lever.
Risk Context
- Beijing used drills to show a blockade shape and an effort to cut off Japanese support routes.
- Taipei used intelligence disclosure and platform coordination to offset information operations and reduce polarization risk.
- The United States and Europe expand capacity, but firms still anchor leading-edge ecosystems in Taiwan.
- Taipei uses energy policy to reduce delay risk, so economic resilience can support defense endurance.
Today’s Items
1) Long-term｜Previous PLA rehearses blockade and opens an air and sea cordon near Japan
- One-line summary: The PLA rehearsed a Taiwan-area blockade and operated near Japan, so external support routes face higher risk.
- Simplified summary: The PLA ran large-scale drills around Taiwan on December 29 and 30 under the name Justice Mission 2025. Japan’s Self-Defense Forces reported PLA aircraft flying from the East China Sea through the Okinawa and Miyako area into the Philippine Sea and returning on the same route, and Taiwan’s military said about 130 PLA aircraft plus 14 PLA Navy ships and eight China Coast Guard ships took part with 90 aircraft crossing the median line into multiple air zones. The PLA built near-Japan operations into the drill, so the template emphasizes cutting off outside help and raising escalation pressure.
- Impact on Taiwan Strait: Impact area is external support routes and air and sea transit safety. Therefore PLA blockade rehearsal near Japan can compress reinforcement and resupply windows, while pushing Taiwan and Japan to raise warning and escort costs.
- Watch point: Within seven days, whether Japan’s Self-Defense Forces again reports PLA aircraft using the Okinawa and Miyako route into the Philippine Sea and returning on the same route.
Original title: How China’s Naval Exercises Are Designed to Strangle Taiwan
Source / Time: National Interest｜Sun, 11 Jan 2026 14:00:00 GMT｜PRC official
2) Breaking｜Taipei details PRC information operations chain and scale
- One-line summary: Taiwan’s NSB said Beijing mobilized firms to run fake sites and accounts, so cohesion and mobilization messaging face stress.
- Simplified summary: Taiwan’s NSB released findings on PRC cognitive warfare tactics against Taiwan in 2025 and described firm-run fake sites and accounts. Taiwan’s NSB said it identified more than 45,000 fake social media accounts and more than 2.314 million pieces of disinformation, and it said PRC Central Publicity Department and Ministry of Public Security direction involved firms such as Haixunshe, Haimai, Huya, and content-farm operations linked to Wubianjie Group. Beijing uses click-driven content to build reach and then pivots to political narratives, so it can amplify division and weaken will to resist during a crisis.
- Impact on Taiwan Strait: Impact area is social resilience and crisis-time decision coherence. Therefore information operations that seed distrust can disrupt mobilization and defense communication, while weakening how external partners judge Taiwan’s stability.
- Watch point: Within seven days, whether Taiwan’s NSB or related agencies publish platform action updates and add new identified account and content-farm cases.
Original title: China uses fake news sites, accounts to spread misinformation against Taiwan: NSB
Source / Time: CNA｜Sun, 11 Jan 2026 06:33:00 GMT
3) Long-term｜Jensen Huang says Taiwan remains the core advanced AI chip ecosystem
- One-line summary: Jensen Huang stressed Taiwan’s irreplaceable role in advanced chips, so the spillover cost of Taiwan Strait instability stays high.
- Simplified summary: Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang publicly said the advanced AI chip supply chain still runs through Taiwan. Huang told The Times in the United Kingdom that US and European capacity expansion is resilience insurance rather than a replacement, and he said Taiwan’s decades-built ecosystem remains unmatched. If supply chain centrality stays concentrated in Taiwan, Taiwan Strait risk can spill into global AI and advanced computing faster and raise outside pressure for stability.
- Impact on Taiwan Strait: Impact area is external involvement incentives and crisis escalation costs. Therefore higher global dependence on Taiwan’s leading-edge capacity raises the cost of conflict, while tightening constraints on Beijing through stronger international pushback risk.
- Watch point: Within seven days, whether more key firms repeat the insurance not replacement framing and again stress Taiwan’s ecosystem centrality.
Original title: Nvidia CEO sends strong message on Taiwan Semiconductor
Source / Time: TheStreet｜Sun, 11 Jan 2026 17:47:00 GMT
4) Long-term｜MOEA resets offshore wind tender rules to improve project viability
- One-line summary: Taiwan’s MOEA proposed dropping localization rules and raising execution and finance scoring, so offshore wind projects may move forward more reliably.
- Simplified summary: Taiwan’s MOEA proposed changes for the Round 3.3 offshore wind auction and shifted emphasis toward deliverability. Taiwan’s MOEA held a public consultation and proposed removing localization regulations, setting developer track record and financial capacity as key scoring at 35 points, adding ESG at 10 to 15 percent of scoring, and requiring grid connection in 2030 to 2031 with project size from 300 MW up to 1 GW. MOEA aims to reduce cost and delay risk, so more projects can reach grid connection and support power stability and industrial resilience.
- Impact on Taiwan Strait: Impact area is wartime power continuity and logistics endurance. Therefore more financeable offshore wind projects that connect on schedule can reduce energy bottleneck risk, while improving sustained operations for critical industry and defense systems in a crisis.
- Watch point: Within seven days, whether MOEA issues final Round 3.3 rules or releases the selection mechanism.
Original title: Taiwan Refocuses Offshore Wind Tenders to Maximize Viability
Source / Time: The Maritime Executive｜Sun, 11 Jan 2026 20:14:18 GMT
Trends and Scenarios
- The PLA may keep testing blockade pacing through median-line activity and the Okinawa and Miyako route. Public releases by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and Taiwan’s military can become early intensity signals.
- Firms and governments may keep framing new fabs as resilience rather than replacement. External actors may therefore treat Taiwan Strait stability as a baseline condition for global advanced computing.
- MOEA’s removal of localization rules and higher execution and finance weighting can reshape market entry. Developers may increase joint development, so capital and technology pathways into Taiwan’s energy market can shift.