# TAIWAN STRAIT CRISIS ALERT!｜2025-12-24 | M1A2T Tanks Drill in Urban Areas & Opposition Launches Impeachment
Highlights
- Taiwan's Army conducts first off-base urban warfare and infrastructure protection drill with M1A2T Abrams tanks.
- Opposition parties (KMT/TPP) set to initiate impeachment proceedings against President Lai this Friday.
- NATO Secretary General warns a Taiwan Strait conflict would trigger Russian military aggression in Europe.
- Honduras election candidates pledge to restore ties with Taiwan, risking a diplomatic setback for Beijing.
- Taiwan's investment shifts to the US, reducing the role of economic ties as a stabilizer for cross-strait relations.
Risk Context
Taiwan is entering a period of high pressure in both domestic politics and military readiness. Militarily, Taiwan is accelerating the deployment of asymmetric capabilities and heavy equipment (M1A2T) while hardening communication resilience (undersea cables), shifting defense focus from anti-landing to persistent urban defense. Politically, the opposition's impeachment push, while unlikely to pass, will intensify instability and potentially weaken the administration's response to gray-zone threats. Internationally, potential diplomatic reversals in Honduras and NATO linking Taiwan's security to Europe indicate the "internationalization" of the Taiwan issue, which may provoke Beijing to escalate legal warfare (long-arm jurisdiction) or diplomatic coercion.
Today's Items
1) [Military Defense] M1A2T Tanks Conduct First Battalion-Level Critical Infrastructure Protection Drill
- One-sentence Summary: The Army's 584th Brigade deployed US-made M1A2T tanks outside their base for the first time to simulate urban warfare and facility protection.
- Simplified Summary: Taiwan's newly procured M1A2T Abrams tanks have begun combat-oriented deployment drills. The Army's 584th Armored Brigade conducted a battalion-level combat readiness patrol and critical infrastructure protection exercise in the Hsinchu area on Tuesday. The drill featured a combined force of M1A2T main battle tanks, CM32/33/34 infantry fighting vehicles, and TOW-equipped Humvees moving to tactical positions before dawn. The military emphasized the "real troops, real terrain, real vehicles" nature of the exercise, aiming to validate the unit's mobility, battlefield management, and ability to protect key targets in urban environments. This signals that the M1A2T will serve as the core of northern defense and counter-strike operations, replacing older models to counter armored threats.
- Taiwan Strait Impact: Military Tactics. Enhances the military's counter-strike and survival capabilities in urban environments, increasing the friction for PLA landing forces.
- Observation Point: Whether similar drills expand to other operational zones (e.g., Taipei Port, Songshan Airport) in the coming months.
Original Title: Taiwan's M1A2T Abrams tanks conduct 1st off-base exercise / Taiwan tests Abrams tanks in urban defense drill
Source / Time: Focus Taiwan / Defence Blog｜2025-12-24
2) [Domestic Politics] KMT and TPP to Launch Impeachment Against President Lai on Friday
- One-sentence Summary: The KMT and TPP plan to propose President Lai's impeachment in the Legislative Yuan this Friday, citing his failure to promulgate legal amendments.
- Simplified Summary: The Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) passed a motion in the Procedure Committee on Tuesday to initiate impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te at this Friday's plenary session. The opposition accuses Lai of violating constitutional duties by refusing to announce a legal amendment that would increase tax revenue allocation to local governments (which the Premier refused to countersign). Although the opposition lacks the two-thirds majority required for impeachment and the Constitutional Court is currently understaffed, KMT whip Lo Chih-chang stated they would pressure the President through nationwide public hearings and invitations to explain himself in the Legislature. The DPP criticized the move as political manipulation intended to humiliate the President.
- Taiwan Strait Impact: Political Resilience. Intensifies partisan conflict, paralyzing legislative efficiency and potentially delaying defense budgets and security bills.
- Observation Point: The parliamentary maneuvering this Friday and the intensity of public reaction to the impeachment proposal.
Original Title: KMT, TPP to begin impeachment proceedings against President Lai Friday
Source / Time: Focus Taiwan｜2025-12-23
3) [International Strategy] NATO Secretary General Warns Taiwan Conflict Would Spill Over to Europe
- One-sentence Summary: NATO Chief Mark Rutte warned that if war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, Russia would exploit the chaos to attack Europe.
- Simplified Summary: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, in an interview with German media, stated that while the Taiwan Strait is geographically distant, Europe cannot be complacent. He explicitly warned that given the close ties between China and Russia, if an armed conflict erupts in the Indo-Pacific, China would target Taiwan, and Putin's Russia would definitely seize the opportunity to cause trouble or expand military operations in Europe. Rutte used this to counter French President Macron's previous remarks that Europe should not intervene, emphasizing Putin's willingness to accept high casualties. This narrative cements NATO's strategic stance of viewing Taiwan Strait security as integral to European security interests.
- Taiwan Strait Impact: International Alliances. Strengthens the "Taiwan contingency is a Europe contingency" narrative, increasing the international political cost for Beijing's use of force.
- Observation Point: Whether NATO members issue specific statements of support or conduct naval transits in the Taiwan Strait.
Original Title: NATO Secretary General warns of potential cross-strait conflict...
Source / Time: VOCO News｜2025-12-23
4) [Diplomatic Shift] Honduras Election Candidates Pledge to Restore Ties with Taiwan
- One-sentence Summary: Leading candidates in the disputed Honduras presidential election have promised to sever ties with China and restore relations with Taiwan.
- Simplified Summary: Three weeks after the Honduras presidential election, no winner has been declared amid claims of US interference by the ruling party. However, the leading conservative candidate Nasry Asfura and Liberal candidate Salvador Nasralla both pledged during the campaign to break diplomatic ties with China and restore relations with Taiwan. Since the current government switched recognition to Beijing in 2023, the shrimp industry has suffered, and expected economic benefits failed to materialize, leading to public backlash. If the new government fulfills this pledge, it would be a rare "diplomatic reversal," challenging Beijing's "One China" principle and potentially triggering a domino effect in Latin America.
- Taiwan Strait Impact: Diplomatic Recognition. A restoration of ties would be a major diplomatic victory for Taiwan, undermining Beijing's strategy of diplomatic isolation in Latin America.
- Observation Point: The final vote count results in Honduras and whether Beijing issues threats of economic sanctions.
Original Title: Why Honduras’ Presidential Election Matters for China and Taiwan
Source / Time: China Global South Project｜2025-12-23
5) [Defense Strategy] Former Official Urges Taiwan to Prioritize Low-Cost, Survivable Weapons
- One-sentence Summary: Former Chief of General Staff Lee Hsi-min advises prioritizing large numbers of cheap, mobile, asymmetric weapons to counter a full-scale invasion.
- Simplified Summary: Former Taiwanese Chief of General Staff Lee Hsi-min argued at a Hudson Institute event that Taiwan faces two threats: gray-zone harassment and full-scale invasion, with the latter being the existential priority. Advocating for the "Overall Defense Concept" (ODC), he urged Taiwan to abandon traditional attrition warfare and instead procure mass quantities of "distributed, mobile, lethal, and survivable" low-cost weapons (e.g., drones, missiles). He emphasized that small numbers of advanced, expensive platforms cannot survive a protracted war against the PLA's quantitative advantage. He argued Taiwan needs "scalable" and "smart enough" systems, a view supported by lessons from the war in Ukraine.
- Taiwan Strait Impact: Military Doctrine. Pushes military procurement away from large platforms (jets, ships) toward asymmetric capabilities (missiles, drones).
- Observation Point: Whether future Ministry of National Defense budgets increase the allocation for drones and mobile missile systems.
Original Title: Taiwan Needs Lots of Low-Cost, Survivable Weapons for China War: Former Official
Source / Time: Business Insider｜2025-12-23
6) [Economic Security] Economic Ties No Longer Lubricate Cross-Strait Relations as Investment Shifts to US
- One-sentence Summary: Experts note that Taiwan's investment in the US has far surpassed that in China due to supply chain decoupling, weakening economic interdependence.
- Simplified Summary: Lai I-chung, president of the Prospect Foundation, stated at a seminar that economic ties, once the "lubricant" of cross-strait relations, have significantly weakened. Data shows that in the first 11 months of 2025, the US became Taiwan's second-largest destination for outbound investment (11.64%), while China fell out of the top five. Lai noted that since the US-China trade war began in 2018, Taiwanese firms have accelerated their withdrawal from China to Southeast Asia and the US. This "decoupling" trend, driven by market demand and supply chain security, makes it harder for Beijing to leverage economic interests to coerce Taiwan politically.
- Taiwan Strait Impact: Economic Coercion. Reduces Taiwan's dependence on the Chinese market, weakening the effectiveness of Beijing's "using business to pressure politics" strategy.
- Observation Point: Whether tariffs under the Trump administration further accelerate the return of Taiwanese businesses or their shift to the US.
Original Title: Economic ties no longer boost Taiwan-China relations: Expert
Source / Time: Focus Taiwan｜2025-12-23
7) [Lawfare] MOFA Warns of China's 'Long-Arm Jurisdiction' Threat in Laos and Cambodia
- One-sentence Summary: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned that China may pressure Laos, Cambodia, and Belarus to arrest and extradite Taiwanese citizens labeled as "separatists."
- Simplified Summary: Responding to reports that China might use extradition treaties or law enforcement cooperation to arrest and deport Taiwanese "independence diehards" (such as lawmaker Puma Shen) to China, MOFA stated it has activated emergency mechanisms. The spokesperson warned that countries like Laos, Cambodia, and Belarus are susceptible to Beijing's pressure and advised citizens to exercise high caution when traveling there. Beijing has recently intensified its lawfare, attempting to extend its domestic legal jurisdiction to Taiwanese nationals abroad through Interpol or bilateral judicial assistance.
- Taiwan Strait Impact: Psycho-Legal Warfare. Creates a chilling effect, limiting the international space for Taiwanese politicians and activists.
- Observation Point: Any incidents of Taiwanese citizens being detained without warning or deported in the mentioned countries.
Original Title: Taiwan trying to counter China's 'long-arm jurisdiction': MOFA
Source / Time: Focus Taiwan｜2025-12-23
8) [Infrastructure] Ministry of Digital Affairs Plans 5 New Undersea Cables for Comms Resilience
- One-sentence Summary: To ensure wartime connectivity, the Ministry plans to build two international and three domestic undersea cables with armored protection.
- Simplified Summary: Minister of Digital Affairs Lin Yi-jing reported to the Presidential Office's Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience Committee that Taiwan will implement a "three-dimensional defense communications network." The plan includes building two new international and three domestic undersea cables equipped with "armor-like" protection to prevent sabotage by Chinese civilian vessels or damage from natural disasters. Additionally, the plan integrates Amazon LEO satellites and Astranis GEO satellites as backups, alongside disaster-roaming base stations and mobile generators. The goal is to ensure core external and internal communication capabilities remain operational during blockades, earthquakes, or military attacks.
- Taiwan Strait Impact: Communications Survivability. Enhances command and control and social operational resilience in a total blockade scenario.
- Observation Point: The tendering progress for cable construction and the participation of international partners (e.g., US/Japan firms).
Original Title: 5 undersea cables planned to boost communications resilience: Minister
Source / Time: Focus Taiwan｜2025-12-23
Trends & Scenarios
- Opposition Leader's Beijing Gambit: KMT's new Chair Cheng Li-wun is being courted by both sides—invited to the US by AIT, while receiving goodwill messages and potential meeting arrangements from Xi Jinping. Beijing is attempting to bypass the ruling party to establish "United Front" dialogue with the opposition, while the US seeks to ensure the KMT doesn't tilt completely toward Beijing. This will further polarize Taiwan's internal politics ahead of the 2026 local elections.
- Regional Security Interconnectedness: From the NATO Chief's remarks to the diplomatic wrestling in Panama and Honduras, the Taiwan issue is increasingly internationalized. Europe fears Russia expanding in the continent during a Taiwan conflict, while the US battles for influence in Latin America. Miscalculations by any party (e.g., Beijing overreacting in Latin America) could trigger cross-regional chain reactions.
- Gray Zone Meets Lawfare: Beyond military harassment, Beijing is strengthening "long-arm jurisdiction" and diplomatic coercion (e.g., threats against Panamanian lawmakers), attempting to compress Taiwan's international legal status and survival space without resorting to kinetic war.