By FN_FR — 14 Jan 2026

TAIWAN STRAIT CRISIS ALERT!｜2026-01-14｜Taipei Warrants OnePlus Exec & US-Taiwan Chip Trade Deal

Today's Key Points

Taipei prosecutors issue arrest warrant for OnePlus CEO Pete Lau alleging illegal poaching of engineers.
Trump administration nears trade deal with Taiwan in exchange for TSMC expanding Arizona fabs.
PLA normalizes combat readiness patrols with higher quality threats rather than just quantity.
Lai Ching-te appoints Su Jia-chyuan as SEF chairman amid Beijing's skepticism.
Taiwan sees surge in cyberattacks in 2025 with strikes on energy facilities up tenfold.
Lai thanks Canada for supporting peace as PM Carney visits Beijing.

One-line Summary: Taipei prosecutors issue arrest warrant for OnePlus CEO Pete Lau alleging illegal poaching of engineers.
Simplified Summary: The Shilin District Prosecutors Office issued an arrest warrant for OnePlus CEO Pete Lau and indicted two Taiwanese collaborators. Prosecutors allege Lau set up an illegal base in Taiwan via a Hong Kong shell company to recruit over 70 R&D engineers. This action demonstrates Taipei's strengthened enforcement of cross-strait regulations to prevent the outflow of critical tech talent.
Taiwan Impact: Impact aspect is tech talent flow and cross-strait legal warfare. Taipei uses criminal measures to raise operational risks for Chinese firms in Taiwan forcing a reassessment of R&D footprints.
Observation: Watch if OnePlus or Oppo release a legal response or adjust Taiwan operations within seven days.

Original Title: Taiwan seeks arrest of Chinese smartphone maker OnePlus CEO over illegal hires
Source / Time: Reuters｜Published

One-line Summary: US nears trade deal with Taiwan as TSMC may add four Arizona fabs.
Simplified Summary: The Trump administration reportedly nears a trade agreement with Taiwan to lower tariffs on Taiwanese imports from 20% to 15%. In exchange TSMC commits to building at least four additional fabs in Arizona pushing total investment toward the $100 billion scale. Taiwan's Office of Trade Negotiations confirmed broad consensus and is discussing final meeting timing.
Taiwan Impact: Impact aspect is semiconductor supply chain resilience and US-Taiwan political binding. Deep capital investment further embeds TSMC into the US industrial base thereby increasing Washington's incentive to intervene in the Taiwan Strait.
Observation: Watch for a formal announcement of a framework agreement from the White House or Taiwan's Executive Yuan this month.

Original Title: US Nears Taiwan Trade Deal Tied to Major TSMC Arizona Expansion
Source / Time: Bloomberg｜Published

One-line Summary: PLA aircraft sorties decrease but threats from carriers and drones escalate.
Simplified Summary: While PLA aircraft sorties around Taiwan decreased in 2025 normalized carrier deployments in the Western Pacific removed the safety of Taiwan's strategic rear. The integration of drones and long-range rocket systems practiced the sensor-to-shooter kill chain alongside routine joint combat readiness patrols. This qualitative shift indicates Beijing is moving from simple numerical displays to constructing complex systemic blockade capabilities.
Taiwan Impact: Impact aspect is Taiwan's defensive depth and warning time. PLA naval and air activities outside the First Island Chain compress the reaction window for Taiwan's military and increase anti-access difficulty.
Observation: Watch for new PLA joint naval-air exercises in waters east of Taiwan in the coming month.

Original Title: PLA Sorties Around Taiwan: Fewer Aircraft, Higher Threat
Source / Time: The Diplomat｜Published

One-line Summary: Taiwan faces surging cyberattacks on critical infrastructure with energy and medical sectors hit hardest.
Simplified Summary: Taiwan's National Security Bureau reports the island faced 2.63 million daily cyberattacks in 2025 a 6% year-on-year increase. Attacks targeting energy infrastructure rose tenfold while those against emergency rescue and hospital systems increased by 54%. Beijing is using hybrid warfare to test Taiwan's social resilience and paralysis points in the early stages of a crisis.
Taiwan Impact: Impact aspect is social resilience and wartime mobilization. Pre-positioned malware in civilian facilities could create social panic and command confusion on the eve of conflict.
Observation: Watch for reports of non-natural malfunctions or data breaches in Taiwan's power or medical systems in the near term.

Original Title: Taiwan Endures Greater Cyber Pressure From China
Source / Time: Dark Reading｜Published

One-line Summary: Lai Ching-te appoints former legislative speaker Su Jia-chyuan to head SEF.
Simplified Summary: Taiwan's Presidential Office announced senior DPP politician Su Jia-chyuan will chair the Straits Exchange Foundation replacing Cheng Wen-tsan. Su served as legislative speaker and liaison to Japan and is considered a core trusted figure by Lai. Beijing views the appointment with skepticism and reiterates the 1992 Consensus as a prerequisite for contact.
Taiwan Impact: Impact aspect is cross-strait semi-official communication channels. Appointing Su with his distinct party background shows Lai intends to make no major personnel compromises to Beijing regarding his cross-strait line.
Observation: Watch if the Taiwan Affairs Office specifically names Su or the new SEF leadership in its next press conference.

Original Title: Taiwan names senior DPP politician new cross-strait chief amid Beijing’s scepticism
Source / Time: SCMP｜Published

One-line Summary: Canadian PM Carney visits Beijing while Lai thanks Canada for opposing status quo changes.
Simplified Summary: Canadian PM Mark Carney arrived in Beijing on January 13 for a five-day visit including a planned meeting with Xi Jinping. Before Carney's trip Lai Ching-te thanked visiting Canadian MPs for Ottawa's recent statement opposing Chinese military drills and unilateral changes to the status quo. Two Liberal MPs cut their Taiwan visit short to avoid confusing Canada's foreign policy.
Taiwan Impact: Impact aspect is Western alignment on China policy. Carney's visit tests the balance Five Eyes members maintain between economic engagement with China and security support for Taiwan.
Observation: Watch if the communiqué following the Carney-Xi meeting contains specific language regarding Taiwan.

Original Title: Canadian PM visits Beijing as questions loom between China & Taiwan
Source / Time: The National Desk｜Published

Japanese scholars warn China will launch information operations in Japan questioning "why die for Taiwan" during a crisis. This aims to sway public opinion and undermine the political basis for the US-Japan alliance's intervention.
A think tank report estimates a failed Beijing invasion would cost 100,000 PLA lives and collapse the economy. However Xi Jinping might still launch an attack if he calculates the political risk of inaction exceeds the cost of war.